Many scholars suspect that people view minipublics as trustworthy information shortcuts because they’re composed of lay citizens—people like themselves. But who trusts these minipublics? And does their influence hinge on that trust? This is exactly what me and John Gastil examine in our paper published in Political Behavior. Is minipublic trust (or “legitimacy”) the secret ingredient? Drawing on evidence from three minipublics held in Oregon, Massachusetts, and California, we ask whether people trust minipublics, who trusts them, can we increase that trust by describing the minipublic more fully, and are only those who trust minipublics susceptible to their recommendations? We found that most people are ambivalent about minipublics, with around 30-40% unsure about their merits. This isn’t surprising given most people haven’t learned much about them. Nevertheless, a significant number of people did trust these minipublics. About 25% of respondents in the three states we sampled were willing to trust minipublics to “make decisions on behalf of the wider public” while 39% did not. On average, US citizens seem to be cautious about these minipublics. Next, we explored whether information about how the minipublic was designed could boost its legitimacy. Many practitioners argue that the use of random selection, exposure to experts and advocates, and generous time for deliberation are all necessary for a successful minipublic. We asked whether telling respondents about these features increased their trust in minipublics. It did not. In fact, we found that being told that the minipublic met with pro and con advocates decreased perceived legitimacy, particularly for politically conservative respondents. Finally, we asked whether those who trust minipublics were more likely to update their policy knowledge or shift their voting intention in line with the final report produced by the minipublic. Surprisingly, we found that those who trust minipublics are about as likely to learn from their recommendations as are their distrustful counterparts. Future research needs to confirm these findings and find out exactly why so many people follow their recommendations, even when unsure about the overall legitimacy of the minipublic process.
Replication Data and Code
Harvard Dataverse: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/KMS
Cite
Már, K., Gastil, J. Do Voters Trust Deliberative Minipublics? Examining the Origins and Impact of Legitimacy Perceptions for the Citizens’ Initiative Review. Polit Behav (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-021-09742-6
Kristinn Már Ársælsson 